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From South Africa To Defining E-commerce Success Globally
Lessons from 17 years of research across Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, and more
Welcome to This Week’s dispatch
In this week’s edition:
From South Africa to Defining E-commerce Success Globally
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What does e-commerce success really mean?
This week in the EVOLVE Commerce Club, we hosted Hendrik Laubscher.
Hendrik has spent 17 years researching global marketplaces. He’s written for Forbes on Amazon, Alibaba, JD.com, Wish, and Pinduoduo, and today he runs Blue Cape Ventures, advising startups, investors, and founders. What makes him stand out is not only the depth of his research, but the way he connects dots across continents — from Africa to Asia to Latin America.
He opened with a provocation that set the tone for the session:
“Valuation doesn’t equal success.”
For an industry that loves big numbers, it was the reset we needed.
The vanity of GMV and valuation
Hendrik reminded us that Jumia hit a billion-dollar valuation before ever turning a profit. Success built on vanity metrics is fragile.
“Boards obsess over GMV. But what matters is take rate, profitability, and retention. That’s where the story is.”
It’s uncomfortable to admit but most of us have sat in rooms where the wrong metrics drove the wrong decisions.
The logistics truth
One of our members asked: “Will LLMs bypass marketplaces and become the new search engine for commerce?”
Hendrik didn’t hesitate:
“Not without supply chains. Logistics still wins the war. AI can recommend, but it can’t deliver.”
That’s why Amazon, Alibaba, Mercado Libre keep investing billions into infrastructure. Success in e-commerce is still measured by how quickly and reliably you can get products into customers’ hands.
Are you willing to wait 9 years?
Another moment that struck us was Hendrik’s perspective on time.
“In commerce, success isn’t overnight. It usually happens between year six and nine.”
It’s not what founders or investors like to hear, but it’s what separates hype from resilience. For many of us in the room, it was a reminder that patience is not weakness it’s the discipline required to build something that lasts.
Questions from the room
The community came alive with sharp questions:
“What about platforms like Shein doesn’t speed and volume redefine success?”
Hendrik explained that Shein’s model is less about magic and more about aligning supply chain with customer behavior in real time. Execution, not shortcuts.“How should early-stage founders think about success when fundraising?”
Hendrik was clear: “don’t just sell growth show discipline. Profitability is back. Growth without a path to sustainability doesn’t get rewarded anymore.”
Watch the full session
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Why This Session Mattered
For me, the lesson was clear.
Success in e-commerce is not defined by hype. It’s defined by resilience, clarity, and execution.
That’s what makes EVOLVE different. We don’t bring in experts to lecture from a distance. We invite people like Hendrik into the room with our members so that the research, the insights, and the lessons are tested against real operators who are building and advising today.
And this week wasn’t just about Hendrik.
We also gathered in London for an intimate dinner with Angela Cretu, former CEO of Avon, alongside leaders from Alibaba, Tesco, Harvey Nichols, Nextbase among others
The panel was on Live & Conversational Commerce.
The real value was in the honesty of the room leaders sharing not what they’ve read, but what they’ve lived.
This is why we built EVOLVE.
To create a space where leaders can ask sharper questions, challenge assumptions, and connect beyond the noise, globally.
Commerce is community.
And the more we connect, the stronger we all grow.
See you in the sessions, inside our whatsapp group or at one of our in-person events
—
Carlos Monteiro
Founder, EVOLVE Commerce Club
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London.
Berlin.
Copenhagen
Madrid.
São Paulo.
Cairo.
Bucharest.
Dubai.
Each one is an invitation to step outside the silo and into real conversations with senior operators shaping the future of commerce.
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